Veres Rivne vs Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Veres Rivne and Inhulets meet at Stadion Kolos in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Kolos, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 4D 1L this season (9 games, 1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Kolos. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Kolos than their overall form suggests.
Inhulets (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's away record: 1W 2D 6L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Veres Rivne. A 0.60 PPG lead over Inhulets (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Veres Rivne, 0 for Inhulets and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Inhulets half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Veres Rivne 24% | Inhulets 41%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 35% | Inhulets 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.25 xG and Inhulets 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.896 / defence 1.068 | Inhulets attack 0.760 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.224. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Veres Rivne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Veres Rivne games / 17 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 42% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 29%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Inhulets 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 22% | Inhulets 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 42% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Veres Rivne 1.25 / Inhulets 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.896 / def 1.068 | Inhulets attack 0.760 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Inhulets xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Inhulets kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Inhulets kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stadion Kolos.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Inhulets part of?
Veres Rivne vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 42% chance of winning, Inhulets a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Veres Rivne and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Inhulets?
Record (1 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 1 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Inhulets in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 0.90x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.76x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.51
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.24
0.99
Inhulets xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.99 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Veres Rivne come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 4D 7L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.76 PPG from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Veres Rivne's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Veres Rivne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.76 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Inhulets away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.88 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Inhulets in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Veres Rivne
3
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Inhulets?
From 5 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 1, Inhulets have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Inhulets 0-0 Veres Rivne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Veres Rivne tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Veres Rivne) and 38% (Inhulets) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Veres Rivne and 50% for Inhulets.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Inhulets in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 38% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Inhulets tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Veres Rivne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne and Inhulets finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.25 xG and Inhulets 0.99 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Inhulets landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Inhulets attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 42% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 29%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 35%, Inhulets 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inhulets's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.