Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Shakhtar Donetsk welcome Vorskla Poltava to Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist: 8W 0D 1L from 9 Premier League appearances (2.67 PPG). They are averaging 3.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 3W 3D 2L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shakhtar Donetsk register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Vorskla Poltava in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0 for Vorskla Poltava and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 50% versus Vorskla Poltava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 61% | Vorskla Poltava 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.85 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.430 / defence 1.069 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.823 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.224. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.430 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 18 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 56% | Draw 23% | Vorskla Poltava 22%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Vorskla Poltava 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | Vorskla Poltava 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 56% | Draw 23% | Vorskla Poltava 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.85 / Vorskla Poltava 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.430 / def 1.069 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.823 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Vorskla Poltava xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 56% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 1W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.43) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.42
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.93
1.08
Vorskla Poltava xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
3%
29.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.08 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 18 games, going 15W 2D 1L for 2.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 7W 0D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.72 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against Vorskla Poltava's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Vorskla Poltava in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 15W 2D 1L in their last 18 games (2.61 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.62 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 62%, Vorskla Poltava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 38% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Shakhtar Donetsk's games and 62% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 38% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shakhtar Donetsk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 27, as Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.85 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.08 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.43 / defence 1.07 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 56% | Draw 23% | Vorskla Poltava 22%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 61%, Vorskla Poltava 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 1.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.