Ruh Lviv 1-2 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Zorya Luhansk travel to Arena Lviv to take on Ruh Lviv. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zorya Luhansk have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zorya Luhansk have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zorya Luhansk are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ruh Lviv, 3 for Zorya Luhansk and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ruh Lviv trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Zorya Luhansk trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 34% versus Zorya Luhansk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 34% | Zorya Luhansk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.50 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.871 / defence 1.330 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.075 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.265. Zorya Luhansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Ruh Lviv games / 55 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 44%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Zorya Luhansk 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 50% | Zorya Luhansk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.50 / Zorya Luhansk 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.871 / def 1.330 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.075 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Zorya Luhansk xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 4 May 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 2 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 31% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk?
Record (8 meetings): Ruh Lviv 3W | Draws 2 | Zorya Luhansk 3W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.87x the league average against Zorya Luhansk's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zorya Luhansk's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
31%
3.19
24%
4.11
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
3.31
1.81
Zorya Luhansk xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
5%
19.48
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.81 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 15W 13D 27L from 55 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zorya Luhansk, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 22L across 55 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.05 PPG, Zorya Luhansk on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 7W 7D 13L from 27 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zorya Luhansk's away record stands at 8W 7D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 1.25 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 13D 27L in their last 55 games (1.05 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Zorya Luhansk's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.04 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zorya Luhansk have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Zorya Luhansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Zorya Luhansk specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
4
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Zorya Luhansk have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-2 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 44%, Zorya Luhansk 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ruh Lviv) and 56% (Zorya Luhansk).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 37% of games; Zorya Luhansk in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Zorya Luhansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 59% of Zorya Luhansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 56% of Zorya Luhansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Ruh Lviv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Ruh Lviv 1-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.50 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.81 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.87 / defence 1.33 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.07 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 44%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 34%, Zorya Luhansk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.05 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.