Ruh Lviv 0-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 40%, yet in-form Vorskla Poltava provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Ruh Lviv welcome Vorskla Poltava to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena L'viv: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Premier League appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vorskla Poltava — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Vorskla Poltava 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 40% versus Vorskla Poltava 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 27% | Vorskla Poltava 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.31 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.886 / defence 0.985 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.964 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.204. Vorskla Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Ruh Lviv games / 16 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 32%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Vorskla Poltava 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vorskla Poltava (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 43% | Vorskla Poltava 67%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.31 / Vorskla Poltava 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.886 / def 0.985 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.964 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Vorskla Poltava xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 40% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.89x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.68
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.45
1.14
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.14 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 4D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (9W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Ruh Lviv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.50 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 33%, Vorskla Poltava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Ruh Lviv and 50% for Vorskla Poltava.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 67% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruh Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava finished level at 0-0 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.31 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.14 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.96 / defence 1.32, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 32%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 27%, Vorskla Poltava 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.