Ruh Lviv 1-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 September 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ruh Lviv at Arena Lviv this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Ruh Lviv. A 1.00 PPG lead over FC Kharkiv (2.10 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ruh Lviv lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 53% versus FC Kharkiv 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 44% | FC Kharkiv 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.36 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.280 / defence 0.868 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.752 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.194. Ruh Lviv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Ruh Lviv games / 34 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 51% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 21%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | FC Kharkiv 4.76. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 50% | FC Kharkiv 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 51% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.36 / FC Kharkiv 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.280 / def 0.868 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.752 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.78
FC Kharkiv xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 51% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
Record (4 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 2 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.28) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.75x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
51%
1.98
28%
3.57
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.14
0.78
FC Kharkiv xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.78 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 10W 12D 12L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 8W 14D 12L from 34 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 1.12 for FC Kharkiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (6W 8D 3L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 9D 5L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.76 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Kharkiv in 29%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 12D 12L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 8W 14D 12L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.53 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Kharkiv have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 1-4 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
3
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, FC Kharkiv have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 65%, FC Kharkiv 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for Ruh Lviv and 24% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 47%; FC Kharkiv in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 24% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 24% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 6, as Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.36 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.78 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.28 / defence 0.87 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.75 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 51% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 21%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 44%, FC Kharkiv 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.24 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.