Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kolos Kovalivka at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Kolos Kovalivka travel to Arena Lviv to take on Ruh Lviv. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 0D 7L at Arena Lviv — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ruh Lviv 1.20 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 35% versus Kolos Kovalivka 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 33% | Kolos Kovalivka 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.14 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.983 / defence 1.264 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.847 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.226. Data: 52 Ruh Lviv games / 52 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 41%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kolos Kovalivka are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 60% | Kolos Kovalivka 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.14 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.983 / def 1.264 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.847 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Kolos Kovalivka xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 32% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (8 meetings): Ruh Lviv 3W | Draws 3 | Kolos Kovalivka 2W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.98) and Kolos Kovalivka's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.68
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.45
1.31
Kolos Kovalivka xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.31 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 15W 12D 25L from 52 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 16W 21D 15L across 52 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.10 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 7W 6D 12L from 25 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 11W 6D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kolos Kovalivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.90 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 12D 25L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 16W 21D 15L in their last 52 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Kolos Kovalivka's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.08 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Kolos Kovalivka specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 44%, Kolos Kovalivka 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ruh Lviv) and 32% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 40%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 36% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 36% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 32% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 23, as Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.14 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.98 / defence 1.26 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 41%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 33%, Kolos Kovalivka 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.10 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.