Ruh Lviv 0-3 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Karpaty (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ruh Lviv face Karpaty.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv host Karpaty at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Karpaty have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Karpaty are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ruh Lviv, 2 for Karpaty and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Karpaty in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 35% versus Karpaty 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 33% | Karpaty 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG and Karpaty 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.956 / defence 1.256 | Karpaty attack 0.978 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.133. Karpaty's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Ruh Lviv games / 54 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 49%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Karpaty 2.04. Karpaty hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 60% | Karpaty 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.90 / Karpaty 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.956 / def 1.256 | Karpaty attack 0.978 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Karpaty xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 3 Karpaty.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 24% chance of winning, Karpaty a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Karpaty?
Record (3 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 1 | Karpaty 2W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Karpaty in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Karpaty (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Karpaty's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
24%
4.14
27%
3.66
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.29
1.39
Karpaty xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.69
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.1 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.39 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 13D 26L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karpaty sit at 1.46 PPG from 54 outings (21W 16D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.07 PPG, Karpaty on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 7W 7D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Karpaty have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.37 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Karpaty in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 21W 16D 17L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Karpaty away?
Karpaty's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.08 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Karpaty in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Karpaty runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Karpaty won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Karpaty specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
1
Draws
3
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Karpaty?
From 4 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Karpaty have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-3 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 46%, Karpaty 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ruh Lviv) and 46% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: Karpaty in 38%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 35% of games; Karpaty in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 42% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 46% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Karpaty tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karpaty run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Ruh Lviv 0-3 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG and Karpaty 1.39 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Karpaty outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Karpaty attack 0.98 / defence 0.76, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 49%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 33%, Karpaty 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karpaty's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.07 PPG, Karpaty 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.