Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv host Dnipro-1 at Arena L'viv in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 7 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena L'viv, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 1L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena L'viv. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dnipro-1 have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 away from home this season: 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.78 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dnipro-1 are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Dnipro-1 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Dnipro-1 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 41% versus Dnipro-1 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 24% | Dnipro-1 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.97 xG and Dnipro-1 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.849 / defence 0.998 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.898 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.219. Data: 17 Ruh Lviv games / 18 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 30% | Dnipro-1 38%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Dnipro-1 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 38% | Dnipro-1 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 30% | Dnipro-1 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.97 / Dnipro-1 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.849 / def 0.998 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.898 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Dnipro-1 xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 7 March 2022 at Arena L'viv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 32% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
32%
3.16
30%
3.31
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.06
1.09
Dnipro-1 xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.9 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.09 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 13W 0D 4L across 17 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 3W 4D 1L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Ruh Lviv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 5W 0D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dnipro-1's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.94 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 0D 4L in their last 17 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.62 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Dnipro-1 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ruh Lviv 38% BTTS, Dnipro-1 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ruh Lviv) and 50% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 50%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 25% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 50% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruh Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 20, as Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.97 xG and Dnipro-1 1.09 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 30% | Dnipro-1 38%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 24%, Dnipro-1 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.