Polessya 2-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Polessya at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tsentralnyi Stadion plays host to Polessya versus Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Polessya have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ruh Lviv's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Polessya's 2.00 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Ruh Lviv, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Ruh Lviv winning.
It is worth noting that Ruh Lviv have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Polessya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 46% versus Ruh Lviv 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Polessya 37% | Ruh Lviv 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.68 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.150 / defence 0.857 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.606 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.243. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Polessya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Polessya games / 59 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 61% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 13%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Ruh Lviv 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Polessya (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Ruh Lviv lead the H2H ledger, but Polessya carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Polessya 50% | Ruh Lviv 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 61% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 40% | xG Polessya 1.68 / Ruh Lviv 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.150 / def 0.857 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.606 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Polessya (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Ruh Lviv xG
40%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Polessya vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Polessya 2 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Polessya vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 61% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Polessya and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
Record (5 meetings): Polessya 0W | Draws 2 | Ruh Lviv 3W.
What form are Polessya and Ruh Lviv in?
Polessya (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.15) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.61x) against Polessya's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
61%
1.63
26%
3.85
13%
7.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.32
0.65
Ruh Lviv xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
7.80
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
2%
41.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Polessya and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Polessya and 0.65 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Polessya come into this having played 59 games, going 29W 17D 13L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 1.00 PPG from 59 outings (15W 14D 30L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Polessya's home form reads 12W 12D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Ruh Lviv have taken 1.03 points per game from 29 outings (8W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Polessya are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.85 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Current Season
Ruh Lviv
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 29W 17D 13L in their last 59 games (1.76 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 14D 30L in their last 59 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Polessya's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.66 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Polessya or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Polessya have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Polessya
2
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
From 6 meetings on record, Polessya have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Polessya 2-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 52%, Ruh Lviv 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Polessya and 28% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Polessya keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 31%; Polessya have failed to score in 28% of games; Ruh Lviv in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Polessya's recent matches and 28% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Polessya's recent games and 28% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Ruh Lviv 2-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.68 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.65 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.15 / defence 0.86 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.61 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 61% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 13%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 37%, Ruh Lviv 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.