Polessya 1-2 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 40%, yet in-form Polessya provide a compelling counter-argument — this Polessya vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Polessya welcome Oleksandria to Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Polessya stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Polessya at home: 4W 3D 2L from their last 9 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Oleksandria have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Polessya carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Polessya have won 1, Oleksandria 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Polessya 3–0 Oleksandria — a Polessya win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Oleksandria trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 47% versus Oleksandria 26%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Polessya 37% | Oleksandria 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 0.90 xG and Oleksandria 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.870 / defence 1.057 | Oleksandria attack 0.919 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.187. Data: built from Polessya's last 19 games and Oleksandria's last 48.
Result probabilities: Polessya 27% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 40%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.68 | Draw 3.06 | Oleksandria 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Polessya (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Polessya's last 9 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Polessya 67% (last 9 home games) | Oleksandria 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 27% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Polessya 0.90 / Oleksandria 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.870 / def 1.057 | Oleksandria attack 0.919 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Oleksandria xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does Polessya vs Oleksandria kick off?
Polessya vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Polessya 1 - 2 Oleksandria.
Where is Polessya vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Oleksandria part of?
Polessya vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 27% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Polessya and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Polessya vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Polessya's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Oleksandria's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 19 games and Oleksandria's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
27%
3.68
33%
3.06
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.05
1.15
Oleksandria xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
9%
11.67
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.8 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Polessya and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Polessya and 1.15 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Polessya come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 6D 4L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Polessya's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across their last 9 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 9 away games (1W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Polessya are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 0.63 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oleksandria in 26%.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Oleksandria in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
Polessya (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Polessya vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Oleksandria away?
Polessya's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.67 PPG; Oleksandria away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Polessya or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 8 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Polessya have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Polessya won Oleksandria 0-3 Polessya.
Polessya's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Polessya
0
Draws
3
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Oleksandria?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 3, Oleksandria have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 May 2026: Polessya 2-1 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Polessya see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 67%, Oleksandria 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Polessya) and 44% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria in 44%; Oleksandria in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Polessya's recent matches and 33% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Polessya and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Polessya's recent games and 44% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Polessya 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Polessya 1-2 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 0.90 xG and Oleksandria 1.15 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Oleksandria attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 19/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 27% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 40%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 37%, Oleksandria 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Oleksandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Polessya (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.