Polessya 1-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Polessya host LNZ Cherkasy at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Polessya have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Polessya carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Polessya have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 49% versus LNZ Cherkasy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 43% | LNZ Cherkasy 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.39 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.202 / defence 0.894 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.913 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.180. Data: 35 Polessya games / 36 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 47% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 26%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.85. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Polessya 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 47% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Polessya 1.39 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.202 / def 0.894 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.913 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Polessya (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Polessya 1 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 47% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (2 meetings): Polessya 1W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Polessya (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.20) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.67
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Polessya and 0.96 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Polessya have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 18W 9D 8L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 14W 9D 12L from 35 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Polessya on 1.80 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Polessya have posted 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 6W 6D 5L from 17 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.09 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 14W 9D 12L in their last 35 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Polessya's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.88 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Polessya or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Polessya
1
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Polessya have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 65%, LNZ Cherkasy 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Polessya) and 35% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Polessya's recent matches and 41% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Polessya's recent games and 35% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy finished level at 1-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.39 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.20 / defence 0.89 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 47% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 26%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 43%, LNZ Cherkasy 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 1.80 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.