Oleksandria 0-1 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk meet at KSK Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Monday 29 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oleksandria have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at KSK Nika this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 home games — 2.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KSK Nika. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Zorya Luhansk's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk away from home this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 away games — 1.86 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Zorya Luhansk are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Oleksandria 1W, Zorya Luhansk 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Oleksandria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 47% versus Zorya Luhansk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 33% | Zorya Luhansk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.52 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.940 / defence 1.055 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.484 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.193. Zorya Luhansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Zorya Luhansk have an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Oleksandria games / 15 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 32% | Draw 22% | Zorya Luhansk 46%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | Zorya Luhansk 2.17. Zorya Luhansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zorya Luhansk at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 50% | Zorya Luhansk 86% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 32% | Draw 22% | Zorya Luhansk 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Oleksandria 1.52 / Zorya Luhansk 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.940 / def 1.055 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.484 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Zorya Luhansk xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 29 November 2021 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk?
Oleksandria 0 - 1 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 32% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 0 | Zorya Luhansk 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.94) and Zorya Luhansk's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zorya Luhansk's attack (1.48x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
32%
3.17
22%
4.47
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
3.39
1.87
Zorya Luhansk xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
5%
20.56
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.87 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 5D 4L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zorya Luhansk sit at 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (9W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.93 for Zorya Luhansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Oleksandria's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Oleksandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zorya Luhansk have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zorya Luhansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 2.27 scored and 1.20 conceded. Zorya Luhansk's attacking output running into Oleksandria's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Zorya Luhansk in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 games (1.53 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Oleksandria's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 2.25 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zorya Luhansk won 4-1 on 18 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zorya Luhansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
3
Draws
4
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk?
From 10 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 3, Zorya Luhansk have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Oleksandria 1-2 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Zorya Luhansk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Oleksandria and 100% for Zorya Luhansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Zorya Luhansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Oleksandria's games and 75% of Zorya Luhansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Oleksandria's matches and 100% of Zorya Luhansk's.
Do Oleksandria and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Oleksandria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Oleksandria 0-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.52 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.87 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Zorya Luhansk landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.48 / defence 1.46, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 32% | Draw 22% | Zorya Luhansk 46%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 33%, Zorya Luhansk 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (15 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (15 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.53 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.