Oleksandria 1-2 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KSK Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Premier League this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Oleksandria, 2.10 for Vorskla Poltava — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (10 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (10 games): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 40% versus Vorskla Poltava 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 30% | Vorskla Poltava 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.04 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.961 / defence 1.033 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.761 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.172. Data: 10 Oleksandria games / 10 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 37% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 31%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Vorskla Poltava 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | Vorskla Poltava 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 37% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Oleksandria 1.04 / Vorskla Poltava 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.961 / def 1.033 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.761 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Vorskla Poltava xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Oleksandria 1 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 37% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.96x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.76x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
37%
2.68
32%
3.15
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
1.97
0.92
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.92 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 5W 3D 2L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games, 2.10 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Oleksandria against 2.10 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.90 scored and 0.70 conceded. Vorskla Poltava's attacking output running into Oleksandria's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Vorskla Poltava in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 games (1.80 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 (2.10 PPG).
Have Oleksandria or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 4, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-3 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 40%, Vorskla Poltava 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Oleksandria and 40% for Vorskla Poltava.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 50%; Oleksandria have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 40% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Oleksandria's recent games and 40% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Oleksandria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Oleksandria 1-2 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.04 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.92 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 37% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 31%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 30%, Vorskla Poltava 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (10 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (10 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.80 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vorskla Poltava win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.