Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Oleksandria welcome Ruh Lviv to KSK Nika. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 4W 0D 3L from 7 Premier League appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 1.20 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 47% versus Ruh Lviv 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 41% | Ruh Lviv 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.33 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.989 / defence 1.090 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.815 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.224. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Oleksandria games / 17 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 42% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 31%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Ruh Lviv 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 43% | Ruh Lviv 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 42% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Oleksandria 1.33 / Ruh Lviv 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.989 / def 1.090 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.815 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ruh Lviv xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at KSK Nika.
Where is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 42% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 1 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.99) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.66
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.41
1.09
Ruh Lviv xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.09 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 6W 5D 6L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oleksandria on 1.35 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.94 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.71 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oleksandria's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Oleksandria
7
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-3 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ruh Lviv see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 43%, Ruh Lviv 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Oleksandria) and 14% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 43% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Oleksandria's recent games and 14% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oleksandria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv finished level at 0-0 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.33 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ruh Lviv landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 42% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 31%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 41%, Ruh Lviv 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.35 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.