Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Obolon'-Brovar welcome Vorskla Poltava to Obolon Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 games at Obolon Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Obolon Arena.
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Obolon'-Brovar at 1.20 PPG versus Vorskla Poltava's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 31% versus Vorskla Poltava 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 38% | Vorskla Poltava 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.831 / defence 1.167 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.839 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.176. Data: 13 Obolon'-Brovar games / 43 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 28% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 40%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Vorskla Poltava 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 33% | Vorskla Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 28% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 / Vorskla Poltava 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.831 / def 1.167 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.839 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Vorskla Poltava xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 28% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Obolon'-Brovar's attack at 0.83x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
28%
3.54
32%
3.10
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.08
1.15
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.3 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.15 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar's recent record stands at 3W 4D 6L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 6L across 13 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 1.00 PPG, Vorskla Poltava on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Obolon'-Brovar have managed 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vorskla Poltava in 62%.
Defensively: Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.00 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
0
Draws
3
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava?
From 4 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 33%, Vorskla Poltava 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 50% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 33%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 50% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vorskla Poltava edge out Obolon'-Brovar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.15 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Obolon'-Brovar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 28% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 40%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 38%, Vorskla Poltava 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.00 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vorskla Poltava win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.