Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Veres Rivne travel to Obolon Arena to take on Obolon'-Brovar. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 September 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 outings — a 0.71 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Obolon'-Brovar at Obolon Arena this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Obolon Arena.
Veres Rivne — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.71 PPG (Obolon'-Brovar) versus 1.00 (Veres Rivne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
Veres Rivne trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 29% versus Veres Rivne 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 29% | Veres Rivne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.11 xG and Veres Rivne 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.777 / defence 1.095 | Veres Rivne attack 0.888 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.132. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Veres Rivne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Obolon'-Brovar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Obolon'-Brovar games / 36 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 35% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 35%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Veres Rivne 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 33% | Veres Rivne 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 35% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.11 / Veres Rivne 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.777 / def 1.095 | Veres Rivne attack 0.888 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Veres Rivne xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 35% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.78) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.31
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.21
1.10
Veres Rivne xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.10 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 2D 4L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 0.71 PPG, Veres Rivne on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.71 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Veres Rivne in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Veres Rivne won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
3
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne?
From 6 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Veres Rivne 2-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 29%, Veres Rivne 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 57% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 71% of games; Veres Rivne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 71% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 57% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Obolon'-Brovar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne finished level at 0-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.11 xG and Veres Rivne 1.10 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Veres Rivne attack 0.89 / defence 1.22, drawn from 7/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 35% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 35%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 29%, Veres Rivne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 0.71 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Obolon'-Brovar conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.