Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Obolon'-Brovar welcome Oleksandria to Obolon Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 3W 3D 4L at Obolon Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Obolon'-Brovar are significantly better at Obolon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Oleksandria — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Oleksandria 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Oleksandria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 29% versus Oleksandria 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 35% | Oleksandria 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.81 xG and Oleksandria 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.748 / defence 1.326 | Oleksandria attack 1.183 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.258. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Obolon'-Brovar games / 34 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 15% | Draw 21% | Oleksandria 64%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | Oleksandria 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Oleksandria (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 20% | Oleksandria 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 15% | Draw 21% | Oleksandria 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 48% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.81 / Oleksandria 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.748 / def 1.326 | Oleksandria attack 1.183 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Oleksandria xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 15% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria?
Record (2 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 1 | Oleksandria 1W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Obolon'-Brovar's attack at 0.75x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
15%
6.82
21%
4.80
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.79
1.97
Oleksandria xG
6.82
15%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
14%
7.19
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
2%
48.98
29%
3.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.97 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Obolon'-Brovar's recent record stands at 6W 12D 16L from 34 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 12L across 34 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Oleksandria by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Obolon'-Brovar have managed 4W 6D 7L from 17 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 5W 6D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.59 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.18 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
Oleksandria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 6W 12D 16L in their last 34 games (0.88 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 12W 10D 12L in their last 34 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.06 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Oleksandria won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria?
From 5 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Oleksandria have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 24%, Oleksandria 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 59% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Oleksandria in 41%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 53% of games; Oleksandria in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 47% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 59% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Obolon'-Brovar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar and Oleksandria finished level at 0-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.81 xG and Oleksandria 1.97 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Oleksandria landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.75 / defence 1.33 against Oleksandria attack 1.18 / defence 0.87, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 15% | Draw 21% | Oleksandria 64%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 35%, Oleksandria 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.