Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Obolon'-Brovar welcome Kryvbas KR to Obolon Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Obolon Arena, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Kryvbas KR have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kryvbas KR are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Obolon'-Brovar, 1 for Kryvbas KR and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Kryvbas KR winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 29% versus Kryvbas KR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 36% | Kryvbas KR 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.88 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.766 / defence 1.338 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.010 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.023. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Obolon'-Brovar games / 42 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 48%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Kryvbas KR 2.08. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Kryvbas KR 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.88 / Kryvbas KR 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.766 / def 1.338 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.010 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Kryvbas KR xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 23% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR?
Record (2 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 1 | Kryvbas KR 1W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.77) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
23%
4.28
29%
3.49
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.26
1.38
Kryvbas KR xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.04
20%
5.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 14.4 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.38 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 42 games, going 8W 14D 20L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.81 PPG from 42 outings (22W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 5W 8D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.76 points per game from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.52 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 22W 10D 10L in their last 42 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.10 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
4
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 29%, Kryvbas KR 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 48% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 38%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 48% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 48% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Obolon'-Brovar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.88 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.38 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Obolon'-Brovar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.77 / defence 1.34 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 48%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 36%, Kryvbas KR 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.