FC Kharkiv 1-3 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Zorya Luhansk travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 3W 2D 1L at Tsentralnyi Stadion — 1.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zorya Luhansk stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Kharkiv 1.60 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Zorya Luhansk, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for FC Kharkiv.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Zorya Luhansk have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (14 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk in-play tendencies (14 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 36% versus Zorya Luhansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 7% | Zorya Luhansk 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.79 xG and Zorya Luhansk 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.812 / defence 0.801 | Zorya Luhansk attack 0.913 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.294. Data: 11 FC Kharkiv games / 41 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 29% | Draw 34% | Zorya Luhansk 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Zorya Luhansk 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — FC Kharkiv's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zorya Luhansk at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 17% | Zorya Luhansk 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 29% | Draw 34% | Zorya Luhansk 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG FC Kharkiv 0.79 / Zorya Luhansk 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.812 / def 0.801 | Zorya Luhansk attack 0.913 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Zorya Luhansk xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 3 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 29% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk?
Record (5 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 0 | Zorya Luhansk 4W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Kharkiv's attack at 0.81x the league average against Zorya Luhansk's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zorya Luhansk's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
29%
3.50
34%
2.93
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.73
0.95
Zorya Luhansk xG
3.50
29%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.97
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 16.7 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.95 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 6W 6D 2L from 14 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zorya Luhansk, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 4L across 14 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.71 PPG, Zorya Luhansk on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zorya Luhansk's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — Zorya Luhansk travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 1.14 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Zorya Luhansk in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 6D 2L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Zorya Luhansk's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.60 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Zorya Luhansk won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Zorya Luhansk specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
5
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Zorya Luhansk have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Zorya Luhansk 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 20%, Zorya Luhansk 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for FC Kharkiv and 60% for Zorya Luhansk.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 40% of games; Zorya Luhansk in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Zorya Luhansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 60% of Zorya Luhansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 60% of Zorya Luhansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zorya Luhansk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat FC Kharkiv 1-3 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.79 xG and Zorya Luhansk 0.95 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.81 / defence 0.80 against Zorya Luhansk attack 0.91 / defence 0.86, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 29% | Draw 34% | Zorya Luhansk 37%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 7%, Zorya Luhansk 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (14 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (14 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.71 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.