FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Livyi Bereh make the trip to to face FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Kharkiv have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's home record at : 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Livyi Bereh's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 5D 0L from 6 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Livyi Bereh away from home this season: 0W 3D 0L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 1.33 for Livyi Bereh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for Livyi Bereh and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Livyi Bereh half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Kharkiv 17% | Livyi Bereh 50%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 50% | Livyi Bereh 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.906 / defence 0.808 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.704 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.082. Data: 34 FC Kharkiv games / 4 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 43% | Draw 37% | Livyi Bereh 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Livyi Bereh 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Livyi Bereh's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.63 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 20% | Livyi Bereh 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 43% | Draw 37% | Livyi Bereh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.02 / Livyi Bereh 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.906 / def 0.808 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.704 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Livyi Bereh xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 43% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh?
Record (3 meetings): FC Kharkiv 2W | Draws 1 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-5D-0L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Livyi Bereh's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.70x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.3%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
43%
2.35
37%
2.67
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.63
0.62
Livyi Bereh xG
2.35
43%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.21
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
7%
13.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.62 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 0D 2L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Livyi Bereh's form line: 1W 5D 0L from 6 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Livyi Bereh.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.67 scored and 0.50 conceded. FC Kharkiv's scoring rate against Livyi Bereh's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: FC Kharkiv have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Livyi Bereh in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 5D 0L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Livyi Bereh away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 2.00 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FC Kharkiv have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (FC Kharkiv) and 67% (Livyi Bereh) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for FC Kharkiv and 0% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 33%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 33% of games; Livyi Bereh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 67% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 0% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.