FC Kharkiv 1-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dnipro-1 (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Kharkiv face Dnipro-1.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv host Dnipro-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's home record at Stadion Livyi Bereh: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at Stadion Livyi Bereh than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dnipro-1 are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Dnipro-1 have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against FC Kharkiv's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
It is worth noting that Dnipro-1 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 43% versus Dnipro-1 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 43% | Dnipro-1 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.95 xG and Dnipro-1 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.026 / defence 1.379 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.068 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.252. Data: 53 FC Kharkiv games / 53 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 19% | Draw 23% | Dnipro-1 58%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Dnipro-1 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 70% | Dnipro-1 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Monday 15 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 19% | Draw 23% | Dnipro-1 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Kharkiv 0.95 / Dnipro-1 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.026 / def 1.379 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.068 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Dnipro-1 xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 15 April 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 19% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
Record (4 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 4W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
19%
5.27
23%
4.44
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.79
1.84
Dnipro-1 xG
5.27
19%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
3%
33.36
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.84 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 10W 19D 24L from 53 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 9L across 53 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 7W 7D 11L from 25 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 16W 5D 4L across 25 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.77 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 19D 24L in their last 53 games (0.92 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 33W 11D 9L in their last 53 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.12 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.12 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when FC Kharkiv 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 48%, Dnipro-1 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC Kharkiv) and 48% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 44%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 48% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 48% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 24, as FC Kharkiv and Dnipro-1 drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.95 xG and Dnipro-1 1.84 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dnipro-1 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.03 / defence 1.38 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.07 / defence 0.84, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 19% | Draw 23% | Dnipro-1 58%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 43%, Dnipro-1 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.