FC Kharkiv 0-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 2 as FC Kharkiv welcome Chornomorets to NSK Olimpijs'kyj. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 4L across 8 games at NSK Olimpijs'kyj this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at NSK Olimpijs'kyj than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chornomorets's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Kharkiv 1.00 PPG, Chornomorets 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Chornomorets and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Chornomorets winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 37% versus Chornomorets 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 42% | Chornomorets 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.24 xG and Chornomorets 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.018 / defence 1.014 | Chornomorets attack 0.989 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.343. Data: 19 FC Kharkiv games / 19 Chornomorets games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 34% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Chornomorets 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 50% | Chornomorets 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (19 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 34% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.24 / Chornomorets 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.018 / def 1.014 | Chornomorets attack 0.989 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Chornomorets xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 34% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets?
Record (2 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (1.02) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (19/19 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.78
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.58
1.35
Chornomorets xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.35 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 2D 11L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.74 PPG from 19 outings (3W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.05 PPG, Chornomorets on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 4W 0D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — FC Kharkiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.05 scored and 2.16 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 2D 11L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 11L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Chornomorets away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.50 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Chornomorets have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets 3-0 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 50%, Chornomorets 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC Kharkiv and 88% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Kharkiv's games and 62% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 88% of Chornomorets's.
Do FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Kharkiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets finished level at 0-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.24 xG and Chornomorets 1.35 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Chornomorets landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Chornomorets attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 19/19 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 34% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 39%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 42%, Chornomorets 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chornomorets's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.05 PPG, Chornomorets 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.