Metal Kharkiv 1-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Metal Kharkiv at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Metal Kharkiv face Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Metal Kharkiv welcome Lviv to Stadion Avanhard in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 7 May 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Metal Kharkiv have gone 0W 3D 7L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Metal Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lviv stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lviv away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.30 PPG (Metal Kharkiv) versus 0.40 (Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Metal Kharkiv, 0 for Lviv and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2022, ended Metal Kharkiv 1–1 Lviv — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Metal Kharkiv trading profile (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Lviv trading profile (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metal Kharkiv 54% versus Lviv 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metal Kharkiv 54% | Lviv 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metal Kharkiv 1.84 xG and Lviv 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metal Kharkiv attack 1.000 / defence 1.489 | Lviv attack 0.949 / defence 1.464. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.198. Lviv's defence rating of 1.464 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Metal Kharkiv's projected output up. Metal Kharkiv's defence rating of 1.489 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from Metal Kharkiv's last 24 games and Lviv's last 42.
Result probabilities: Metal Kharkiv 42% | Draw 22% | Lviv 36%. Fair-value odds: Metal Kharkiv 2.38 | Draw 4.52 | Lviv 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Metal Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metal Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Metal Kharkiv's last 10 home games and Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Metal Kharkiv 50% (last 10 home games) | Lviv 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metal Kharkiv 42% | Draw 22% | Lviv 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Metal Kharkiv 1.84 / Lviv 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Metal Kharkiv attack 1.000 / def 1.489 | Lviv attack 0.949 / def 1.464 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Metal Kharkiv (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Metal Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Lviv xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv FAQs
What time does Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv kick off?
Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv?
Metal Kharkiv 1 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv part of?
Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Metal Kharkiv a 42% chance of winning, Lviv a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Metal Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Metal Kharkiv and Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Metal Kharkiv's attack at 1.00x the league average against Lviv's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Metal Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Metal Kharkiv's last 24 games and Lviv's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Metal Kharkiv Win
42%
2.38
22%
4.52
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Metal Kharkiv xG
Total xG
3.53
1.69
Lviv xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
16%
6.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.96
6%
17.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Metal Kharkiv and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Metal Kharkiv and 1.69 for Lviv, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Metal Kharkiv have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 4W 7D 13L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Lviv's form line: 3W 4D 17L from 24 games, 0.54 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metal Kharkiv on 0.79 PPG, Lviv on 0.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Metal Kharkiv have posted 0.73 PPG from their last 11 home games (1W 5D 5L).
On the road, Lviv have gone 1W 1D 9L from their last 11 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Metal Kharkiv are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.75 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metal Kharkiv
Blended
Lviv
Blended
Metal Kharkiv (Home) vs Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Metal Kharkiv
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Metal Kharkiv and Lviv in coming into this match?
Metal Kharkiv have gone 4W 7D 13L in their last 24 games (0.79 PPG), while Lviv have gone 3W 4D 17L in their last 24 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metal Kharkiv at home or Lviv away?
Metal Kharkiv's home record (0.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metal Kharkiv at home: 0.73 PPG; Lviv away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 7 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Metal Kharkiv
1
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Metal Kharkiv and Lviv?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Metal Kharkiv have won 1, Lviv have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Metal Kharkiv and Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 May 2023: Metal Kharkiv 1-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Metal Kharkiv and Lviv?
Metal Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Metal Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metal Kharkiv 54%, Lviv 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Metal Kharkiv) and 36% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Metal Kharkiv have failed to score in 46% of games; Lviv in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metal Kharkiv home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Metal Kharkiv vs Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Metal Kharkiv and Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Metal Kharkiv's recent matches and 36% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Metal Kharkiv and Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Metal Kharkiv's recent games and 36% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metal Kharkiv and Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Metal Kharkiv's recent matches and 73% of Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Metal Kharkiv edge out Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metal Kharkiv beat Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metal Kharkiv 1.84 xG and Lviv 1.69 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Metal Kharkiv fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Lviv landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metal Kharkiv attack 1.00 / defence 1.49 against Lviv attack 0.95 / defence 1.46, drawn from 24/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metal Kharkiv 42% | Draw 22% | Lviv 36%, with Metal Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metal Kharkiv 54%, Lviv 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metal Kharkiv's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Lviv's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metal Kharkiv 0.79 PPG, Lviv 0.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metal Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. Metal Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.