LNZ Cherkasy 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Shakhtar Donetsk at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy at Cherkasy Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 5W 5D 0L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: LNZ Cherkasy 2.70 PPG, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. LNZ Cherkasy's 10% rate and Shakhtar Donetsk's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shakhtar Donetsk, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for LNZ Cherkasy.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 4–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 37% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 31% | Shakhtar Donetsk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.022 / defence 0.864 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.133 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.167. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 LNZ Cherkasy games / 51 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 10% | Shakhtar Donetsk 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Monday 13 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.022 / def 0.864 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.133 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 13 April 2026 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
LNZ Cherkasy 2 - 2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 30% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (5 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 4W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 1.02x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
30%
3.38
30%
3.34
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.08
1.14
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.14 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 22W 12D 17L from 51 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 33W 13D 5L across 51 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 11W 5D 8L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 13W 9D 2L across 24 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.35 scored and 0.75 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking output running into LNZ Cherkasy's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 33W 13D 5L in their last 51 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.58 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.00 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
4
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 33%, Shakhtar Donetsk 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for LNZ Cherkasy and 38% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 58%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 38% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 38% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk finished level at 2-2 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.14 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.13 / defence 0.77, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 31%, Shakhtar Donetsk 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.