LNZ Cherkasy 0-2 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 38%, yet in-form LNZ Cherkasy provide a compelling counter-argument — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cherkasy Arena plays host to LNZ Cherkasy versus Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 12 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 5W 2D 3L at Cherkasy Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Oleksandria have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Oleksandria haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Oleksandria have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. LNZ Cherkasy's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Oleksandria's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 0 for Oleksandria and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 43% versus Oleksandria 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 47% | Oleksandria 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 xG and Oleksandria 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.963 / defence 0.883 | Oleksandria attack 1.085 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.248. Data: 31 LNZ Cherkasy games / 30 Oleksandria games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 38%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Oleksandria 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form LNZ Cherkasy (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Monday 12 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 / Oleksandria 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.963 / def 0.883 | Oleksandria attack 1.085 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Oleksandria xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 12 August 2024 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 2 Oleksandria.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 33% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria?
Record (2 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 1 | Oleksandria 0W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.96) and Oleksandria's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (1.08x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (31/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.53
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.29
1.20
Oleksandria xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.20 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 12W 8D 10L from 30 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 12L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. Oleksandria haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.13 for Oleksandria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 6W 3D 6L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 3W 6D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Oleksandria
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Oleksandria away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.40 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.00 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Oleksandria have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 47%, Oleksandria 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 60% (Oleksandria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 7% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Oleksandria in 40%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 27% of games; Oleksandria in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 47% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of LNZ Cherkasy's matches and 60% of Oleksandria's.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-2 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 xG and Oleksandria 1.20 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Oleksandria outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Oleksandria attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 38%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 47%, Oleksandria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.47 PPG, Oleksandria 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.