LNZ Cherkasy 2-1 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kudrivka make the trip to Tsentralnyi Stadium to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy at Tsentralnyi Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadium.
Kudrivka's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kudrivka's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in LNZ Cherkasy's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — LNZ Cherkasy lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Kudrivka winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Kudrivka half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 19% versus Kudrivka 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Kudrivka 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 xG and Kudrivka 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.088 / defence 0.932 | Kudrivka attack 0.884 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.075. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 LNZ Cherkasy games / 37 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 56% | Draw 28% | Kudrivka 16%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Kudrivka 6.25. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Kudrivka 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 56% | Draw 28% | Kudrivka 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 / Kudrivka 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.088 / def 0.932 | Kudrivka attack 0.884 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Kudrivka xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadium.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
LNZ Cherkasy 2 - 1 Kudrivka.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadium.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 56% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka?
Record (2 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 0 | Kudrivka 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Kudrivka (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (1.09) and Kudrivka's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kudrivka's attack (0.88x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.52
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.68
0.89
Kudrivka xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
38.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.89 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 37 games, going 20W 8D 9L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 0.86 PPG from 37 outings (7W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Kudrivka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 10W 4D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.44 points per game from 18 outings (1W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.05 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Kudrivka
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 20W 8D 9L in their last 37 games (1.84 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 7W 11D 19L in their last 37 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Kudrivka away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.89 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.44 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kudrivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka?
From 3 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Kudrivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-1 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 22%, Kudrivka 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for LNZ Cherkasy and 39% for Kudrivka.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 28% of games; Kudrivka in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 50% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 39% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Kudrivka 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Kudrivka 2-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 xG and Kudrivka 0.89 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Kudrivka attack 0.88 / defence 1.31, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 56% | Draw 28% | Kudrivka 16%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 30%, Kudrivka 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Kudrivka's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.