LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kudrivka make the trip to to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy at this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Kudrivka's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kudrivka's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for LNZ Cherkasy, 1.30 for Kudrivka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — LNZ Cherkasy lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Kudrivka winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Kudrivka half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 18% versus Kudrivka 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 26% | Kudrivka 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 xG and Kudrivka 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.965 / defence 0.867 | Kudrivka attack 0.844 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.103. Data: 34 LNZ Cherkasy games / 34 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Draw 34% | Kudrivka 26%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Kudrivka 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Kudrivka 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Draw 34% | Kudrivka 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 / Kudrivka 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.965 / def 0.867 | Kudrivka attack 0.844 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Kudrivka xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 40% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka?
Record (2 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 0 | Kudrivka 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.96) and Kudrivka's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kudrivka's attack (0.84x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
40%
2.51
34%
2.91
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
1.88
0.81
Kudrivka xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.81 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 34 games, going 19W 7D 8L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 0.85 PPG from 34 outings (6W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Kudrivka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.47 points per game from 17 outings (1W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 0.97 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Kudrivka
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 19W 7D 8L in their last 34 games (1.88 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 6W 11D 17L in their last 34 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Kudrivka away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.82 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.47 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka?
From 2 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Kudrivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Kudrivka 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 18% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 47% (Kudrivka) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for LNZ Cherkasy and 35% for Kudrivka.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games; Kudrivka in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 47% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 35% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.