Livyi Bereh 0-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Livyi Bereh at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Livyi Bereh face Oleksandria.

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Fixture Analysis

Livyi Bereh welcome Oleksandria to Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 29 March 2025 at 11:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Livyi Bereh — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Livyi Bereh's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Oleksandria have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Oleksandria's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Livyi Bereh at 1.40 PPG versus Oleksandria's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Livyi Bereh's 20% BTTS rate and Oleksandria's 30% (from Livyi Bereh's last 10 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Livyi Bereh, 1 for Oleksandria and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Livyi Bereh 0–2 Oleksandria — a Oleksandria win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.

Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 21% of Livyi Bereh's games and 38% of Oleksandria's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 25% | Oleksandria 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.07 xG and Oleksandria 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.878 / defence 1.099 | Oleksandria attack 0.926 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 0.853. Data: built from Livyi Bereh's last 20 games and Oleksandria's last 51.

Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 40% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 29%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 2.52 | Draw 3.20 | Oleksandria 3.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Livyi Bereh at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Livyi Bereh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Livyi Bereh's last 10 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Livyi Bereh 20% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 30% (last 10 away games).

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