Livyi Bereh 0-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv meet at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 29 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Livyi Bereh's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Livyi Bereh are significantly better at Stadion Livyi Bereh than their overall form suggests.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Livyi Bereh 0W, FC Kharkiv 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Livyi Bereh half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 23% versus FC Kharkiv 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Livyi Bereh 32% | FC Kharkiv 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.96 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.829 / defence 1.174 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.995 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.009. Data: 30 Livyi Bereh games / 30 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 39%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | FC Kharkiv 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Livyi Bereh 40% | FC Kharkiv 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Thursday 29 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.96 / FC Kharkiv 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.829 / def 1.174 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.995 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Kharkiv xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 29 May 2025 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Livyi Bereh 0 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 28% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Livyi Bereh's attack at 0.83x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.99x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
28%
3.59
33%
2.99
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.14
1.18
FC Kharkiv xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.18 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Livyi Bereh's recent record stands at 8W 5D 18L from 31 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 17L across 31 games — 0.77 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Livyi Bereh against 0.77 for FC Kharkiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Livyi Bereh have managed 5W 3D 8L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 1W 4D 11L across 16 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Livyi Bereh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.06 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games; FC Kharkiv in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Current Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 8W 5D 18L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 5W 9D 17L in their last 31 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.12 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Kharkiv have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv?
From 3 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Livyi Bereh 25%, FC Kharkiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Livyi Bereh) and 44% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 50% of games; FC Kharkiv in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 50% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 44% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out Livyi Bereh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Livyi Bereh 0-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.96 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.18 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Livyi Bereh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 39%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 32%, FC Kharkiv 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 0.94 PPG, FC Kharkiv 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.