Kolos Kovalivka 1-3 FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Kolos Kovalivka welcome FC Mariupol to Stadion Kovalivka. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Kolos Kovalivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Kovalivka, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Mariupol stand at 0W 1D 5L from 6 Premier League matches — 0.17 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Mariupol have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Mariupol's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Premier League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Kolos Kovalivka carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.83 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.17. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
FC Mariupol trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 20% versus FC Mariupol 80%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kolos Kovalivka 20% | FC Mariupol 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.21 xG and FC Mariupol 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.740 / defence 1.079 | FC Mariupol attack 0.686 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.156. Kolos Kovalivka's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Kolos Kovalivka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Kolos Kovalivka games / 6 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 42% | Draw 33% | FC Mariupol 24%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | FC Mariupol 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kolos Kovalivka at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kolos Kovalivka 33% | FC Mariupol 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Kovalivka • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 42% | Draw 33% | FC Mariupol 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.21 / FC Mariupol 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.740 / def 1.079 | FC Mariupol attack 0.686 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
0.85
FC Mariupol xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadion Kovalivka.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol?
Kolos Kovalivka 1 - 3 FC Mariupol.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kovalivka.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 42% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Mariupol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and FC Mariupol in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. FC Mariupol (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kolos Kovalivka's attack at 0.74x the league average against FC Mariupol's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Mariupol's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
42%
2.35
33%
3.00
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.06
0.85
FC Mariupol xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.85 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kolos Kovalivka's recent record stands at 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Mariupol, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 5L across 5 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Mariupol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kolos Kovalivka by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Mariupol heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.40 scored and 2.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; FC Mariupol in 80%.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Early Season
FC Mariupol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 (0.00 PPG).
Have Kolos Kovalivka or FC Mariupol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FC Mariupol in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Mariupol runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Kolos Kovalivka
0
Draws
1
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Mariupol?
From 1 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 0, FC Mariupol have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2021, when Kolos Kovalivka 1-3 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Mariupol?
FC Mariupol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 20%, FC Mariupol 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 20% for Kolos Kovalivka and 100% for FC Mariupol. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play FC Mariupol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 80% of FC Mariupol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 20% of Kolos Kovalivka's matches and 100% of FC Mariupol's.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Mariupol cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kolos Kovalivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Mariupol beat Kolos Kovalivka 1-3 at Stadion Kovalivka, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.21 xG and FC Mariupol 0.85 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Mariupol outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against FC Mariupol attack 0.69 / defence 1.38, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 42% | Draw 33% | FC Mariupol 24%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a FC Mariupol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 20%, FC Mariupol 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kolos Kovalivka arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with FC Mariupol winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kolos Kovalivka shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Mariupol scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.