Kryvbas KR 0-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Kryvbas KR take on Veres Rivne.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne meet at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kryvbas KR have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Premier League outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Veres Rivne arrive in superior form — a 1.07 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Veres Rivne in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading Data
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kryvbas KR 0% | Veres Rivne 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 0% | Veres Rivne 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 0.81 xG and Veres Rivne 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.716 / defence 0.972 | Veres Rivne attack 0.930 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.182. Kryvbas KR's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Kryvbas KR games / 21 Veres Rivne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 24% | Draw 39% | Veres Rivne 38%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 4.17 | Draw 2.56 | Veres Rivne 2.63. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 0% | Veres Rivne 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 24% | Draw 39% | Veres Rivne 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Kryvbas KR 0.81 / Veres Rivne 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.716 / def 0.972 | Veres Rivne attack 0.930 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Veres Rivne xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 24% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 38% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-L-D. Veres Rivne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.93x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (3/21 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.20
39%
2.60
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
1.88
1.07
Veres Rivne xG
4.20
24%
Home win
2.60
39%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 16.3 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.07 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Veres Rivne by 1.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kryvbas KR heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Kryvbas KR or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Veres Rivne won 0-3 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
From 8 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 5, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Veres Rivne 1-3 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Kryvbas KR) and 33% (Veres Rivne) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Kryvbas KR and 33% for Veres Rivne.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 33%; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 100% of games; Veres Rivne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 33% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 33% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Veres Rivne edge out Kryvbas KR 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Kryvbas KR 0-1 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 0.81 xG and Veres Rivne 1.07 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kryvbas KR fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against Veres Rivne attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 3/21 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 24% | Draw 39% | Veres Rivne 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Veres Rivne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 0%, Veres Rivne 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Veres Rivne conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.