Kryvbas KR 0-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR host Polessya at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kryvbas KR have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Kryvbas KR have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kryvbas KR have won 0, Polessya 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Polessya in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 48% versus Polessya 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 52% | Polessya 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.54 xG and Polessya 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.105 / defence 0.822 | Polessya attack 0.904 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.189. Data: 57 Kryvbas KR games / 27 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 53% | Draw 26% | Polessya 22%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Polessya 4.55. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 40% | Polessya 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 53% | Draw 26% | Polessya 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.54 / Polessya 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.105 / def 0.822 | Polessya attack 0.904 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Polessya xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Polessya kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Polessya kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 13 May 2024 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 1 Polessya.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Polessya part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 53% chance of winning, Polessya a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Polessya?
Record (1 meetings): Kryvbas KR 0W | Draws 1 | Polessya 0W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Polessya in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Polessya (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.89
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.42
0.88
Polessya xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
5%
21.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.88 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Kryvbas KR have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 16W 6D 5L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya's form line: 12W 7D 8L from 27 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kryvbas KR are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Polessya.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kryvbas KR have posted 2.08 PPG from 13 outings (8W 3D 2L).
On the road, Polessya have gone 6W 3D 4L from 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Polessya in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 16W 6D 5L in their last 27 games (2.00 PPG), while Polessya have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Polessya away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 2.08 PPG; Polessya away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Polessya in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Polessya go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 1, Polessya have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Polessya 2-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 46%, Polessya 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kryvbas KR) and 46% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Polessya in 46%; Polessya in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 31% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 46% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Polessya tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Polessya in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Polessya defy the odds to beat Kryvbas KR 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Kryvbas KR 0-1 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.54 xG and Polessya 0.88 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kryvbas KR fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.10 / defence 0.82 against Polessya attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 53% | Draw 26% | Polessya 22%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Polessya win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 52%, Polessya 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Polessya's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.59. Form was overturned, with Polessya winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.