Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-4 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv make the trip to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion to face Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dynamo Kyiv (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Dynamo Kyiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dynamo Kyiv away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.87 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in recent Premier League fixtures (2.20 vs 0.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33% versus Dynamo Kyiv 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33% | Dynamo Kyiv 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.62 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.727 / defence 1.062 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.461 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.085. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dynamo Kyiv's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 32 Dynamo Kyiv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 13% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Kyiv 63%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7.69 | Draw 4.35 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 13% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Kyiv 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 38% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.62 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.727 / def 1.062 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.461 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Dynamo Kyiv xG
38%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1 - 4 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 13% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 63% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack at 0.73x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (1.46x) against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
13%
7.49
23%
4.26
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.30
1.68
Dynamo Kyiv xG
7.49
13%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
2%
40.28
34%
2.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 16.8 | 14.1 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.68 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
2
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv 4-0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33%, Dynamo Kyiv 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 33% for Dynamo Kyiv.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv in 33%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 67% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 33% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-4 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.62 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.68 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.73 / defence 1.06 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.46 / defence 0.79, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 13% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Kyiv 63%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33%, Dynamo Kyiv 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.