Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv meet at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 17 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dynamo Kyiv have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 6W 2D 1L this season (9 games, 2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 9 home games (78%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NSK Olimpijs'kyj. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Dynamo Kyiv's favour (2.30 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Dynamo Kyiv have seen both teams score in just 22% of their matches, FC Kharkiv in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dynamo Kyiv, 0 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dynamo Kyiv half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 39% versus FC Kharkiv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 50% | FC Kharkiv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.61 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.141 / defence 0.966 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.659 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.220. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Dynamo Kyiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Dynamo Kyiv games / 18 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 57% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 18%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | FC Kharkiv 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Kyiv 22% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 57% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.61 / FC Kharkiv 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.141 / def 0.966 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.659 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.78
FC Kharkiv xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 17 March 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 57% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 1W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.14x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.66x) against Dynamo Kyiv's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
57%
1.74
25%
4.04
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.39
0.78
FC Kharkiv xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
4%
28.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.78 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 18 games, going 14W 3D 1L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (6W 1D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.44 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.61 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.94 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 14W 3D 1L in their last 18 games (2.50 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.22 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Dynamo Kyiv
3
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 33% (FC Kharkiv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 33% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 78% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dynamo Kyiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 22, as Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.61 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.78 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.66 / defence 1.28, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 57% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 18%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 50%, FC Kharkiv 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.