Dynamo Kyiv 5-2 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv host Inhulets at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Premier League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Dynamo Kyiv — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Inhulets have recorded 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Inhulets's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dynamo Kyiv, 1 for Inhulets and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Dynamo Kyiv 0–2 Inhulets — a Inhulets win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Inhulets in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 64% versus Inhulets 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 64% | Inhulets 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.80 xG and Inhulets 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.176 / defence 0.778 | Inhulets attack 0.684 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.090. Inhulets's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dynamo Kyiv's projected output up. Inhulets's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. Dynamo Kyiv have a tight defence (rating 0.778), which is pulling Inhulets's projected output down. Data: built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 40 games and Inhulets's last 11.
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 67% | Draw 22% | Inhulets 11%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.50 | Draw 4.45 | Inhulets 9.17. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (67%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dynamo Kyiv 50% (last 10 home games) | Inhulets 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 67% | Draw 22% | Inhulets 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.80 / Inhulets 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.176 / def 0.778 | Inhulets attack 0.684 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Inhulets xG
37%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets FAQs
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets?
Dynamo Kyiv 5 - 2 Inhulets.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 67% chance of winning, Inhulets a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Inhulets will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.18x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 40 games and Inhulets's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
67%
1.50
22%
4.45
11%
9.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.38
0.58
Inhulets xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
9.17
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
2%
55.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.58 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dynamo Kyiv's recent record stands at 9W 2D 0L from 11 games, a 2.64 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Inhulets, meanwhile, have gone 0W 5D 6L across 11 games — 0.45 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 2.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Inhulets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dynamo Kyiv have managed 3W 2D 0L from their last 5 home games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.64 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Inhulets's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across their last 5 away games, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.64 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv (Home) vs Inhulets (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets Form FAQs
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 9W 2D 0L in their last 11 games (2.64 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 5D 6L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Inhulets away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.20 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Inhulets in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dynamo Kyiv have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2025, when Dynamo Kyiv won Inhulets 0-4 Dynamo Kyiv.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Dynamo Kyiv
1
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Inhulets?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, Inhulets have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Inhulets last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Inhulets 0-4 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Inhulets?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 60%, Inhulets 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 60% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Inhulets in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Inhulets Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dynamo Kyiv and Inhulets matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's games and 60% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dynamo Kyiv and Inhulets matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 60% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Inhulets matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 60% of Inhulets's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Inhulets 5-2 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.80 xG and Inhulets 0.58 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inhulets outscored their 0.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.18 / defence 0.78 against Inhulets attack 0.68 / defence 1.32, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 67% | Draw 22% | Inhulets 11%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 64%, Inhulets 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Inhulets's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.64 PPG against 0.45. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inhulets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.