Dnipro-1 1-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Veres Rivne make the trip to Dnipro Arena to face Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dnipro-1 have collected 1.86 PPG across 7 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 1.14 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne (all games): 3W 2D 2L across 7 Premier League outings this term — 1.57 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne's away record: 1W 0D 2L from 3 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.86 PPG for Dnipro-1 against 1.57 for Veres Rivne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Dnipro-1 half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 57% versus Veres Rivne 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 71% | Veres Rivne 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.44 xG and Veres Rivne 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.058 / defence 1.035 | Veres Rivne attack 1.110 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.218. Veres Rivne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Dnipro-1's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Dnipro-1 games / 7 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 38% | Draw 25% | Veres Rivne 36%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Veres Rivne 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 57% | Veres Rivne 33%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 38% | Draw 25% | Veres Rivne 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Dnipro-1 1.44 / Veres Rivne 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.058 / def 1.035 | Veres Rivne attack 1.110 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Veres Rivne xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne?
Dnipro-1 1 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 38% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dnipro-1's attack rating (1.06) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (1.11x) against Dnipro-1's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
38%
2.61
25%
3.97
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.84
1.40
Veres Rivne xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.40 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Dnipro-1 against 1.57 for Veres Rivne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne in 29%.
Defensively: Veres Rivne in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Have Dnipro-1 or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Dnipro-1
1
Draws
0
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 4, Veres Rivne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Veres Rivne 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 57%, Veres Rivne 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Dnipro-1) and 43% (Veres Rivne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 57%; Veres Rivne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 29% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Dnipro-1's matches and 43% of Veres Rivne's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Veres Rivne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Veres Rivne 1-0 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.44 xG and Veres Rivne 1.40 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Veres Rivne landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Veres Rivne attack 1.11 / defence 1.20, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 38% | Draw 25% | Veres Rivne 36%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 71%, Veres Rivne 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dnipro-1 1.86 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dnipro-1 win broke the near-deadlock. Dnipro-1 conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.