Dnipro-1 3-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oleksandria make the trip to Dnipro Arena to face Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Dnipro-1 (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 at Dnipro Arena this season: 5W 0D 1L from 6 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dnipro Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Oleksandria have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Dnipro-1. A 0.50 PPG lead over Oleksandria (2.10 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 29% versus Oleksandria 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dnipro-1 50% | Oleksandria 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.06 xG and Oleksandria 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.133 / defence 0.995 | Oleksandria attack 0.651 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.241. Data: 14 Dnipro-1 games / 14 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 40% | Draw 34% | Oleksandria 26%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Oleksandria 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 17% | Oleksandria 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 40% | Draw 34% | Oleksandria 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Dnipro-1 1.06 / Oleksandria 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.133 / def 0.995 | Oleksandria attack 0.651 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Oleksandria xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Dnipro-1 3 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 40% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Oleksandria (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dnipro-1's attack rating (1.13) and Oleksandria's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.65x) against Dnipro-1's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
40%
2.51
34%
2.94
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
1.86
0.80
Oleksandria xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.80 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Dnipro-1 have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 9W 1D 4L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria's form line: 6W 5D 3L from 14 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Dnipro-1 against 1.64 for Oleksandria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dnipro-1 have posted 2.50 PPG from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Dnipro-1 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Oleksandria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.00 scored and 0.71 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dnipro-1 have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Oleksandria in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 9W 1D 4L in their last 14 games (2.00 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Oleksandria away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.50 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
2
Draws
1
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Oleksandria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Oleksandria 1-0 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Oleksandria tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Dnipro-1) and 33% (Oleksandria) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Dnipro-1 and 17% for Oleksandria.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Oleksandria in 50%; Oleksandria in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 33% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 17% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Oleksandria 3-1 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.06 xG and Oleksandria 0.80 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dnipro-1 beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Oleksandria attack 0.65 / defence 0.88, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 40% | Draw 34% | Oleksandria 26%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 50%, Oleksandria 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dnipro-1 2.00 PPG, Oleksandria 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dnipro-1 win broke the near-deadlock. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Oleksandria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.