Dnipro-1 3-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Avanhard, Dnipro-1 have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Avanhard.
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Dnipro-1 are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dnipro-1, 0 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dnipro-1 35% | FC Kharkiv 35%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 60% | FC Kharkiv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.24 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.201 / defence 0.829 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.847 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.189. Data: 20 Dnipro-1 games / 21 FC Kharkiv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 43% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 22%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | FC Kharkiv 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 40% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (20 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 43% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Dnipro-1 1.24 / FC Kharkiv 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.201 / def 0.829 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.847 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.83
FC Kharkiv xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Dnipro-1 3 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 43% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Dnipro-1 1W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (20/21 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
43%
2.32
34%
2.90
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.07
0.83
FC Kharkiv xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.83 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Dnipro-1 have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 15W 1D 4L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 6W 3D 11L from 20 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Kharkiv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dnipro-1 have posted 2.70 PPG from 10 outings (9W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Dnipro-1 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dnipro-1 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 15W 1D 4L in their last 20 games (2.30 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.70 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dnipro-1's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Dnipro-1
1
Draws
0
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 4, FC Kharkiv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when FC Kharkiv 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dnipro-1 40% BTTS, FC Kharkiv 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Dnipro-1) and 30% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 30% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 30% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dnipro-1 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat FC Kharkiv 3-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.24 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.83 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dnipro-1 beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Kharkiv landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.20 / defence 0.83 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.85 / defence 0.85, drawn from 20/21 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 43% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 22%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 60%, FC Kharkiv 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.