Dnipro-1 5-2 Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Lviv encounter.

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Match Analysis

Dnipro-1 host Lviv at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 9 April 2023 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Dnipro-1 — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Dnipro-1 have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Dnipro-1 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lviv stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

On the road, Lviv have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Dnipro-1 have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Lviv 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2022, ended Dnipro-1 3–0 Lviv — a Dnipro-1 win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 42% versus Lviv 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 64% | Lviv 39%). Note also that Lviv surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Dnipro-1 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.45 xG and Lviv 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.128 / defence 0.846 | Lviv attack 0.802 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.231. Data: built from Dnipro-1's last 36 games and Lviv's last 36.

Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 52% | Draw 27% | Lviv 22%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.94 | Draw 3.74 | Lviv 4.62. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dnipro-1 50% (last 10 home games) | Lviv 30% (last 10 away games).

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