Chornomorets 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Chornomorets face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Shakhtar Donetsk at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 3 May 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Chornomorets — last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Chornomorets at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Shakhtar Donetsk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Chornomorets.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Chornomorets 1–2 Shakhtar Donetsk — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 45% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 46% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chornomorets surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Shakhtar Donetsk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.78 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.824 / defence 1.133 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.389 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.023. Shakhtar Donetsk bring a tight defence (rating 0.771, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Chornomorets's projected output down. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack rating of 1.389, which lifts their away xG to 1.61. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 56 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 56.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 18% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 5.58 | Draw 4.03 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Chornomorets's last 10 home games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 40% (last 10 home games) | Shakhtar Donetsk 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 18% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Chornomorets 0.78 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.824 / def 1.133 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.389 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk FAQs
What time does Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Chornomorets 0 - 3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 18% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Shakhtar Donetsk's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chornomorets's last 56 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
18%
5.58
25%
4.03
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.39
1.61
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.58
18%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
4%
27.95
26%
3.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.8 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.61 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 5D 36L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Shakhtar Donetsk sit at 2.23 PPG from 56 outings (38W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chornomorets's home form reads 10W 2D 14L across their last 26 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Shakhtar Donetsk have taken 2.12 points per game from their last 26 away games (16W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.21 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Chornomorets (Home) vs Shakhtar Donetsk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chornomorets
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk Form FAQs
What form are Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 15W 5D 36L in their last 56 games (0.89 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 38W 11D 7L in their last 56 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.23 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Aug 2021, when Shakhtar Donetsk won Chornomorets 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
1
Draws
7
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Chornomorets have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 38%, Shakhtar Donetsk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Chornomorets) and 46% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 42%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chornomorets vs Shakhtar Donetsk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Chornomorets's recent games and 46% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Shakhtar Donetsk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 69% of Shakhtar Donetsk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Chornomorets 0-3 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.78 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.39 / defence 0.77, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 18% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 46%, Shakhtar Donetsk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.