Chornomorets 1-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Chornomorets to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 1.20 PPG versus FC Kharkiv's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Chornomorets's 30% rate and FC Kharkiv's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chornomorets, 1 for FC Kharkiv and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC Kharkiv trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 53% versus FC Kharkiv 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 59% | FC Kharkiv 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.98 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.764 / defence 1.038 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.998 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.438. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Chornomorets games / 34 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 25% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 49%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | FC Kharkiv 2.04. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 30% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 25% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Chornomorets 0.98 / FC Kharkiv 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.764 / def 1.038 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.998 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.49
FC Kharkiv xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Chornomorets 1 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 25% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv?
Record (3 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.76x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
25%
4.00
26%
3.83
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.47
1.49
FC Kharkiv xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
6%
17.76
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.49 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 6W 10D 18L from 34 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 16L across 34 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.82 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 3W 5D 9L from 17 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 3W 6D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.97 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 6W 10D 18L in their last 34 games (0.82 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.82 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv?
From 6 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets 3-0 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 47%, FC Kharkiv 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Chornomorets) and 29% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 47% of games; FC Kharkiv in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 29% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Chornomorets's recent games and 29% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.98 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.49 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.76 / defence 1.04 against FC Kharkiv attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 25% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 49%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 59%, FC Kharkiv 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.82 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.