Chornomorets 1-3 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Chornomorets. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Chornomorets are significantly better at Stadion Chornomorets than their overall form suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chornomorets lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 2–0 with Chornomorets winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 47% versus LNZ Cherkasy 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 59% | LNZ Cherkasy 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.28 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.201 / defence 0.924 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.657 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.213. Data: 44 Chornomorets games / 15 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 48% | Draw 32% | LNZ Cherkasy 20%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | LNZ Cherkasy 5.00. Chornomorets hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 48% | Draw 32% | LNZ Cherkasy 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Chornomorets 1.28 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.201 / def 0.924 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.657 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.74
LNZ Cherkasy xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Chornomorets 1 - 3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 48% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (1.20) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.66x) against Chornomorets's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 44/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
48%
2.07
32%
3.15
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.02
0.74
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.74 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 8W 1D 8L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 5W 6D 6L from 17 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Chornomorets against 1.24 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chornomorets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; LNZ Cherkasy in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 8W 1D 8L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.86 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 4 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 43% (Chornomorets) and 14% (LNZ Cherkasy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Chornomorets) and 43% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 57%; LNZ Cherkasy in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 14% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Chornomorets's recent games and 43% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Chornomorets 1-3 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.28 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.74 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.66 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 48% | Draw 32% | LNZ Cherkasy 20%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a LNZ Cherkasy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 59%, LNZ Cherkasy 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.47 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.