Chornomorets 1-2 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Chornomorets have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Chornomorets at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Chornomorets are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Kryvbas KR (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

On a straight form reading, Kryvbas KR are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Chornomorets, 2 for Kryvbas KR and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Chornomorets 0–1 Kryvbas KR — a Kryvbas KR win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 51% versus Kryvbas KR 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 51% | Kryvbas KR 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.17 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.058 / defence 1.075 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.207 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.289. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack rating of 1.207, which lifts their away xG to 1.67. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 53 games and Kryvbas KR's last 54.

Result probabilities: Chornomorets 27% | Draw 24% | Kryvbas KR 49%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.75 | Draw 4.13 | Kryvbas KR 2.04. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chornomorets's last 10 home games and Kryvbas KR's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 40% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights