Trabzonspor vs Rizespor – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Rizespor travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 2D 1L at Papara Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Trabzonspor, 4 for Rizespor and 0 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Rizespor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 62% versus Rizespor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.19 xG and Rizespor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.418 / defence 0.714 | Rizespor attack 1.077 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Trabzonspor games / 42 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 67% | Draw 19% | Rizespor 14%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Rizespor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 50% | Rizespor 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 67% | Draw 19% | Rizespor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 53% | xG Trabzonspor 2.19 / Rizespor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.418 / def 0.714 | Rizespor attack 1.077 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Rizespor xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Rizespor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Papara Park.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 67% chance of winning, Rizespor a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trabzonspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Rizespor?
Record (8 meetings): Trabzonspor 4W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 4W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Rizespor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.26
14%
7.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.09
0.90
Rizespor xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
7.05
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
11%
8.95
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
63.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.90 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 25W 10D 7L from 42 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 17L across 42 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 13W 6D 2L from 21 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 5W 8D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.29 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 25W 10D 7L in their last 42 games (2.02 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Rizespor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.14 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rizespor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Rizespor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
4
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Rizespor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-0 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 57%, Rizespor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Trabzonspor) and 62% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Trabzonspor's games and 67% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Trabzonspor's matches and 62% of Rizespor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.