Trabzonspor 2-3 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rizespor travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 0D 5L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 2 matches, Rizespor stand at 0W 1D 1L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Trabzonspor, 1 for Rizespor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2022, ended Trabzonspor 2–3 Rizespor — a Rizespor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.92 xG and Rizespor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.231 / defence 0.796 | Rizespor attack 0.823 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.325. Trabzonspor have a tight defence (rating 0.796), which is pulling Rizespor's projected output down. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 37 games and Rizespor's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 59% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 14%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.69 | Draw 3.66 | Rizespor 7.39. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (59%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Trabzonspor 37 games, Rizespor 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 3 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 59% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.92 / Rizespor 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.231 / def 0.796 | Rizespor attack 0.823 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Rizespor xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 3 Rizespor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 3) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 59% chance of winning, Rizespor a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Trabzonspor and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 37 games and Rizespor's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.66
14%
7.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.79
0.87
Rizespor xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
7.39
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
2%
50.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.87 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Rizespor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Trabzonspor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Trabzonspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Rizespor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
4
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Rizespor?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 5, Rizespor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Rizespor 3-4 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Rizespor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trabzonspor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 50% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Trabzonspor 2-3 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.92 xG and Rizespor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.23 / defence 0.80 against Rizespor attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 37/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 59% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 14%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 0%, Rizespor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.