Trabzonspor 1-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 27 as Trabzonspor welcome Hatayspor to Papara Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Papara Park, Trabzonspor have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Trabzonspor, 2 for Hatayspor and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hatayspor trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Hatayspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 58% | Hatayspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.67 xG and Hatayspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.329 / defence 0.876 | Hatayspor attack 0.913 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.170. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 2.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Trabzonspor games / 62 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Hatayspor 11%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Hatayspor 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 40% | Hatayspor 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Hatayspor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 57% | xG Trabzonspor 2.67 / Hatayspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.329 / def 0.876 | Hatayspor attack 0.913 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Hatayspor xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 74% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Trabzonspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor?
Record (7 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 2 | Hatayspor 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.67. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.41
11%
9.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.60
0.94
Hatayspor xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.41
16%
Draw
9.51
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
7%
14.41
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
1%
137.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.94 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 62 games, going 29W 12D 21L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.87 PPG from 62 outings (11W 21D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 19W 4D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.50 points per game from 30 outings (2W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 29W 12D 21L in their last 62 games (1.60 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 11W 21D 30L in their last 62 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.03 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
3
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Trabzonspor 1-2 Hatayspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 57%, Hatayspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Trabzonspor) and 43% (Hatayspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Hatayspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 47% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trabzonspor's matches and 43% of Hatayspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Trabzonspor 1-2 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.67 xG and Hatayspor 0.94 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Hatayspor outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against Hatayspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Hatayspor 11%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a Hatayspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 58%, Hatayspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hatayspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.