Trabzonspor 5-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trabzonspor 1.30 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Fatih Karagümrük 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Fatih Karagümrük 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.57 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.011 / defence 1.094 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.680 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.174. Data: 63 Trabzonspor games / 64 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 19%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.26. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Trabzonspor 1.57 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.011 / def 1.094 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.680 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Fatih Karagümrük xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Trabzonspor 5 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 51% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (5 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 2 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.01x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.34
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.44
0.87
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
4%
25.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.87 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 63 games, going 30W 10D 23L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.27 PPG from 63 outings (20W 20D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.59 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 20W 5D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.00 points per game from 31 outings (7W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.67 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 30W 10D 23L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 20W 20D 23L in their last 63 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.10 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 45%, Fatih Karagümrük 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Trabzonspor) and 55% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 58% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 55% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 5-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.57 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.87 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.68 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 19%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 57%, Fatih Karagümrük 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.59 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.