Trabzonspor 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Trabzonspor, 1 for Başakşehir and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 62% versus Başakşehir 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Başakşehir 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.53 xG and Başakşehir 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.077 / defence 0.650 | Başakşehir attack 1.082 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.358. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.650 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Trabzonspor games / 55 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 50% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 23%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Başakşehir 4.35. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 40% | Başakşehir 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 50% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Trabzonspor 1.53 / Başakşehir 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.077 / def 0.650 | Başakşehir attack 1.082 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Başakşehir xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 50% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Trabzonspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Record (2 meetings): Trabzonspor 0W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.08x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (1.08x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.69
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.48
0.95
Başakşehir xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
5%
20.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.95 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 55 games, going 31W 17D 7L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.80 PPG from 55 outings (29W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.80 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 16W 10D 0L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.50 points per game from 26 outings (10W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.51 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 31W 17D 7L in their last 55 games (2.00 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 29W 12D 14L in their last 55 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.23 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 0-3 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 54%, Başakşehir 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Trabzonspor) and 46% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Trabzonspor's games and 62% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 46% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.53 xG and Başakşehir 0.95 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.08 / defence 0.65 against Başakşehir attack 1.08 / defence 0.86, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 50% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 23%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Başakşehir 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Başakşehir's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 2.00 PPG, Başakşehir 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.