Trabzonspor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to Medical Park Stadyumu to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Medical Park Stadyumu this season: 6W 2D 0L from 8 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 3W 1D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.70 vs 2.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Başakşehir in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 61% and Başakşehir 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 61% | Başakşehir 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.55 xG and Başakşehir 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.219 / defence 0.877 | Başakşehir attack 1.039 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.146. Data: 18 Trabzonspor games / 18 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 48% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 25%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Başakşehir 4.00. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 62% | Başakşehir 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 48% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Trabzonspor 1.55 / Başakşehir 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.219 / def 0.877 | Başakşehir attack 1.039 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Başakşehir xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 December 2021 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 48% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Trabzonspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.22x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (1.04x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.66
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.60
1.04
Başakşehir xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
5%
19.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.04 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 18 games, going 14W 3D 1L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (10W 2D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 6W 2D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.61 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Başakşehir in 61%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 14W 3D 1L in their last 18 games (2.50 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 10W 2D 6L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.50 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 0-3 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Trabzonspor, 75% for Başakşehir — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Trabzonspor and 75% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Trabzonspor's games and 75% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Trabzonspor's matches and 75% of Başakşehir's.
Do Trabzonspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Trabzonspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Trabzonspor and Başakşehir drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.55 xG and Başakşehir 1.04 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Trabzonspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.22 / defence 0.88 against Başakşehir attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 48% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 25%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 61%, Başakşehir 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Başakşehir's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.