Trabzonspor 2-1 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Altay fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Trabzonspor versus Altay in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trabzonspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Altay have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Altay have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Trabzonspor, 0 for Altay and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Altay goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 67% and Altay 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 53% | Altay 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.47 xG and Altay 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.079 / defence 1.040 | Altay attack 0.662 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.344. Data: 36 Trabzonspor games / 36 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 48% | Draw 31% | Altay 21%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Altay 4.76. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 70% | Altay 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 48% | Draw 31% | Altay 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Trabzonspor 1.47 / Altay 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.079 / def 1.040 | Altay attack 0.662 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Altay xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Altay kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Altay kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Altay?
Trabzonspor 2 - 1 Altay.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Altay part of?
Trabzonspor vs Altay is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 48% chance of winning, Altay a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Trabzonspor and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Altay?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 0 | Altay 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Altay in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Altay (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Trabzonspor's attack rating (1.08) and Altay's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Altay's attack (0.66x) against Trabzonspor's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.24
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.40
0.93
Altay xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
5%
20.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.93 for Altay, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trabzonspor come into this having played 36 games, going 22W 12D 2L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Altay sit at 0.94 PPG from 36 outings (9W 7D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Altay — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Trabzonspor's home form reads 11W 7D 0L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Altay have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Altay
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Altay in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 22W 12D 2L in their last 36 games (2.17 PPG), while Altay have gone 9W 7D 20L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Altay away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.22 PPG; Altay away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Altay been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Altay in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
0
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 2, Altay have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Trabzonspor 2-1 Altay.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Altay?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 67%, Altay 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 56% (Altay).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Altay in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Altay?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Trabzonspor's games and 56% of Altay's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 56% of Altay's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Altay tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Altay in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Altay 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Altay 2-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.47 xG and Altay 0.93 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Altay attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 48% | Draw 31% | Altay 21%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 53%, Altay 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Altay's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.