İstanbulspor 0-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
İstanbulspor welcome Beşiktaş to Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 25 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, İstanbulspor stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
İstanbulspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Beşiktaş have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Beşiktaş's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of İstanbulspor's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, İstanbulspor have won 0, Beşiktaş 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended İstanbulspor 0–2 Beşiktaş — a Beşiktaş win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
İstanbulspor trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Beşiktaş trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 50% versus Beşiktaş 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 55% | Beşiktaş 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: İstanbulspor surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Beşiktaş have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.11 xG and Beşiktaş 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.769 / defence 1.358 | Beşiktaş attack 1.039 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.190. İstanbulspor's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. İstanbulspor's defence rating of 1.358 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beşiktaş's projected output up. Data: built from İstanbulspor's last 62 games and Beşiktaş's last 62.
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 23% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 48%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 4.42 | Draw 3.41 | Beşiktaş 2.08. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (İstanbulspor's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: İstanbulspor 80% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 23% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG İstanbulspor 1.11 / Beşiktaş 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.769 / def 1.358 | Beşiktaş attack 1.039 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Beşiktaş xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş?
İstanbulspor 0 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 23% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from İstanbulspor's attack rating (0.77) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from İstanbulspor's last 62 games and Beşiktaş's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
23%
4.42
29%
3.41
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.68
Beşiktaş xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
4%
23.68
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.68 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, İstanbulspor have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 15W 11D 36L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Beşiktaş's form line: 36W 13D 13L from 62 games, 1.95 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against İstanbulspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, İstanbulspor have posted 0.97 PPG from their last 31 home games (8W 6D 17L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 15W 7D 9L from their last 31 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.85 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
İstanbulspor (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
İstanbulspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 15W 11D 36L in their last 62 games (0.90 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 36W 13D 13L in their last 62 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.97 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.68 PPG.
Have İstanbulspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
İstanbulspor have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
İstanbulspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
İstanbulspor
1
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, İstanbulspor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 February 2024: İstanbulspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 55%, Beşiktaş 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (İstanbulspor) and 58% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of İstanbulspor's games and 58% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of İstanbulspor's matches and 58% of Beşiktaş's.
Do İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 87% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over İstanbulspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat İstanbulspor 0-2 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.11 xG and Beşiktaş 1.68 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. İstanbulspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.36 against Beşiktaş attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 23% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 48%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 55%, Beşiktaş 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.